Luring OCSteve
Dec 09, 2008 by DaveCThis Global Warming stuff [url=http://home.att.net/~chicago_climo/chiann.gif]hasn't showed up in Chicago[/url] (besides a blip in 1998). Given that there has been snow on the ground for a week now, rain freezing into sheets of ice tonight, and no end in sight for the cold weather, This December should push 2008 to be one of the coldest of the past 100 years, considering we had snow on the ground for over 7 weeks straight last January-March, a late spring and a fairly cool summer. How are things in Maryland?
Comments
Dec 09, 2008, 08:42:06 DaveC wrote:
Matter of fact is that it has been colder than normal for most of the last thirty years.
Dec 09, 2008, 11:08:38 libjpn wrote:
I'll type this slowly. Global Warming does not mean that the earth will turn into Venus. Global Warming does not mean that every where gets warm. It means that we will be subject to bigger and bigger shifts of weather and temperature.
Dec 09, 2008, 12:33:23 russell wrote:
[i]This Global Warming stuff hasn't showed up in Chicago [/i]
Dave, don't look now, but a bunch of Earth First folks are lined up, just over the Canadian border, with big fans blowing cold air from the Canadian prairie down to Chicago.
Just to mess with your head.
Thanks -
Dec 09, 2008, 19:54:25 OCSteve wrote:
Come on Dave – this is why they changed it to “climate change”.
But yeah, my heat came on and stayed on a lot earlier this year.
Dec 11, 2008, 04:36:02 Turbulence wrote:
When my wife complains about how hot it is at our house in the summer, I just tell her that it is perfectly cool inside the freezer. The freezer is part of our house, so I don't get why she's complaining about the house being hot.
Then again, my wife is capable of understanding the most basic concepts of statistics. There's a reason that professionals are always going on about means and variances.
Dec 11, 2008, 06:43:53 Slartibartfast wrote:
"warming" normally means that the _mean_ is increasing. The variance is also perfectly able to increase, but if things are getting warmer, the mean is going to go up.
Pretty academic. That said, I have absolutely no problem with the jump to the left (sorry, not political; just Rocky Horror Picture Show soundtrack going through my head) to Global Climate Change.
Which, if it's neither warming nor cooling, looks like a trend in variance of all sorts of things.
Lastly: I'm obviously not sold on either AGCC or AGW, but you're going to get record cold (and warm!) days with or without climate change. You're also going to get short-term trends in all sorts of climate parameters, and you're going to get long-term trends as well that have nothing to do with human activity. If there IS in fact a trend due to human activity, it's probably going to be small compared with, for instance, today's cold front.
So, even though it's funny and all to note that it snows wherever Al Gore travels to lecture on warming, you've got to remember to not have that mean anything in particular, for or against AGW or AGCC.
Dec 16, 2008, 12:49:42 DaveC wrote:
[i]If there IS in fact a trend due to human activity, it's probably going to be small compared with, for instance, today's cold front.[/i]
Which is the point that I was making by including the graph of mean temperatures between 1873-2007. The hot weather of 1998 was a short term event, that does not prove in any way that Anthropomorhic Grobal Warming. Between 1980 and now, 16 years (going on 17) have had below average temperatures, while 12 years were above average. So I would say that there is a 4/3 chance greater chance of Global Cooling, from my local perspective, which apparently isn't sufficiently academic. Clearly, even though it has been getting colder for the last three decades, global warming is more "scientific".
Dec 16, 2008, 13:23:53 libjpn wrote:
http://www.eorc.jaxa.jp/en/...
[i]The Japan Meteorological Agency web site announced that the first sea ice of the season was observed on January 1, two days later than usual and that the first arrival of sea ice in the season was observed on February 16, 15 days later than usual in Abashiri-city. In Monbetsu city, according to the web site, the first sea ice was observed on January 26, four days later than usual, but the arrival of sea ice was not observed yet.[/i]
We go back up the Hokkaido during the winter and my wife can't believe how much warmer it is than when she was a high school student.
It's idiotic that I have to point this out to you cause you are always asking us to respect your work, which involves science, but dumping a lot of heat in the system can mean that some places actually get cooler. I'm the liberal arts guy, but even I know about the latent heat of fusion. You don't do your rep much good by flailing about on this.
Dec 16, 2008, 13:40:09 DaveC wrote:
Screw that science stuff. I'm literally in the Cash Money business now, lj, sorting and counting notes and looking for counterfeits. I'd like to get back into the old biz, but I'll take what I can get.
What I'd like to do on a blog is to come up with a comment like:
[i]Face it: Gov Patterson [b]lacks the vision[/b] and courage to appoint Giuliani to Clinton's seat.[/i]
(from Althouse) which is very mean, but you have to admit, is funny.
Dec 17, 2008, 00:42:15 Slartibartfast wrote:
"dumping a lot of heat in the system can mean that some places actually get cooler. I'm the liberal arts guy, but even I know about the latent heat of fusion"
I'm not sure what these two sentences have to do with each other, LJ. 'splain, please?